Rob Breakenridge: A fascinatingly dull by-election result for Poilievre
The orchestrated candidate deluge forced Elections Canada to create a special write-in ballot for this byelection. Oh, and Poilievre still won handily.
By: Rob Breakenridge
Something remarkable occurred in the Alberta riding of Battle River-Crowfoot Monday night: we got a normal, boring byelection result.
For as much as Canadian politics have been predisposed toward boring, that’s been much less true as of late. That trend may not have originated in Toronto-St. Paul last year, but that’s where it became undeniable. What should have been a sleepy and predictable summer byelection in a safe Liberal seat turned out to be something quite different. That Liberal defeat helped to set off a chain of events that upended Canadian politics and, in a way, led us directly to this latest byelection.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre was certainly not entitled to a boring byelection result, something he was no doubt keenly aware of, given that he was forced to seek out a byelection in the first place. He had to work for it, and Monday night he was rewarded with a resounding victory.
For as much as we might expect a Conservative leader in a safe (perhaps the safest) Conservative riding to cruise to an easy victory, that was not guaranteed. There were all kinds of factors that made this race potentially volatile and uncomfortable.
Perhaps the biggest wildcard in this race was apathy. There’s the typical apathy, of course: the apathy that accompanies the expected outcome of a perceived safe seat, as well as the apathy borne from knowing that a single race in a single riding doesn’t change the government. Plus, voters in Battle River-Crowfoot went to the polls four months ago.
But this race had another element: apathy toward federal politics — even Canada itself. After a fourth straight Liberal victory which also coincided with a fourth straight election where Alberta voters preferred to not have a Liberal government, the Alberta separatist movement has been rejuvenated.
The separatist Alberta Prosperity Project has been drawing large crowds to its town hall meetings in the Conservative heartland as part of their push for an independence vote. And while polls suggest no more than a third of Albertans support separation, that’s largely skewed toward those on the right side of the political spectrum (and arguably even more concentrated amongst rural conservatives).
To his credit, though, Poilievre never wavered in his “Canada First” and “proud Canadian” message. While he did articulate his own understanding of the frustrations many Albertans are feeling, the argument that change is still possible in Ottawa is a much harder sell in Alberta these days.
In the end, Conservative voters turned out for Poilievre. Voter turnout was just under 60 per cent — an impressive total for a race under these circumstances — and of those voters, just over 80 per cent cast their ballot for Pierre Poilievre.
In the April general election, Conservative MP Damien Kurek was re-elected with just under 83 per cent of the vote. Given all the dynamics of this byelection (prompted by Kurek’s resignation), there was a question around whether Poilievre could match or even come close to Kurek’s number. What was seen as a high bar for the leader was more than cleared.
The closest challenger to Poilievre — the former soldier and feisty independent candidate Bonnie Critchley — was very much not an Alberta separatist. Same goes for the Liberal and NDP candidates who finished 3rd and 4th. The avowed separatist candidate in the race finished 5th with just 1.5 per cent of the vote.
In the April general election, finishing fifth in this riding meant finishing last. In this byelection, finishing fifth — even with less than two per cent of the vote — meant that you still finished ahead of about 97 per cent of the candidates.
The antics of the Longest Ballot Committee became another factor in this byelection, just as they were in Toronto-St. Paul last year (as well as the April race in Poilievre’s previous riding). The 84 candidates in Toronto-St, Paul was a record number at the time, but that was more than blown out of the water in Battle River-Crowfoot, which featured a ridiculous total of 214 registered candidates.
For their part, the Longest Ballot Committee is declaring victory, which I suppose is one way of interpreting the situation. Almost none of the committee’s recruited candidates managed to exceed single digit vote totals and their efforts probably also dragged down independent candidates who had nothing to do with this stunt.
The orchestrated candidate deluge forced Elections Canada to create a special write-in ballot for this byelection. Oh, and Poilievre still won handily.
This byelection will very quickly be old news, although Poilievre still owes the riding some degree of representation as his focus can now turn to Ottawa, a leadership review, and the next election (and deciding where to run in that election).
After spending many months atop the polls, Poilievre now has to face a different reality in going up against a prime minister who a) remains popular and b) is not Justin Trudeau. Still, there are vulnerabilities now showing for Mark Carney and opportunities for Poilievre's comeback story to extend well beyond the interestingly dull result in Battle River-Crowfoot.
Rob Breakenridge is a Calgary-based podcaster and writer and host of The Line Alberta. He can be found at robbreakenridge.ca and and reached at rob.breakenridge@gmail.com
What a disappointing article. Could this writer not directly note that this election result does not support earlier media comments about the level of support for separatism in Alberta? Or that the turn out is by itself an indication of support for the CPC? The writing included those items, but without the direct comments that feed headlines. Is this wishy washy article an attempt to leave the left with no headline they won't like? But lastly - thank you for the data that this article does include.
I wonder why Peter Piper and Pierre Puddleduck weren't running? Could that have made a difference?