Rob Breakenridge: A debate on immigration will be a welcome distraction for Smith

This could get ugly.

Friday afternoon news dumps are nothing new for the Alberta government, but it was surprising and strange to see such a muted rollout of something that has been so pivotal to Alberta politics.

The Alberta Next panel has been central to much of Premier Danielle Smith’s political branding and messaging this year. There’s a reason why she appointed herself chair of the panel in the first place. One might have expected more fanfare to accompany the release of the panel’s final report.

This, after all, is a report that will define much of the government’s agenda in the months ahead. The UCP is going to be in campaign mode — not for an early election, necessarily, but rather for the multiple ballot questions that will be put to Albertans at some point in 2026.

Months of buildup to some carefully crafted referendums helps to distract from a whole host of controversies and missteps in the past two years.

And of all the issues likely to proceed to a referendum and serve as that distraction, it’s worth noting — and fretting — the sudden prominence of the immigration debate.

No one will be surprised by any of the conclusions or recommendations in the Alberta Next report. Anyone who’s been following this process could have predicted the end result with considerable accuracy. The more cynically inclined might further wonder to what extent this was all pre-ordained.

The report recommends various ways Alberta might assert more autonomy, including the creation of a provincial police force and continuing to push for changes to equalization and fiscal federalism. The report also suggests further study of the creation of a separate agency to collect provincial tax revenue.

And, as expected, the report sets the stage for various issues that will be put directly to Albertans. There are three specific referendums proposed: whether to replace the Canada Pension Plan with a made-in-Alberta plan, whether Alberta should push for specific constitutional amendments to protect provincial jurisdiction, and whether Alberta should assert more control over immigration.

Immigration has frequently been eclipsed by many of these other issues throughout this process. It’s now the preferred focus.

The premier has not been subtle in telegraphing this shift. In at least two separate interviews last week, Smith stated an intention to pose an immigration-related question to Albertans next year.

And just two days before the release of the Alberta Next report, the premier took to social media to lament Ottawa’s handling of the immigration file and to make the case for greater provincial control.

The reason for this is pretty clear. Although Alberta frequently shows somewhat high support for the idea of increased independence in the abstract; polls show mixed-to-low support for the actual mechanics of running an independent state. For example, support for leaving the Canada Pension Plan has consistently polled quite low — including in the Alberta government’s own engagement survey (the results of which they sat on for almost two years).

Immigration, on the other hand, checks a lot of important boxes.

For one, its shared jurisdiction, so Alberta has a credible case to argue for more authority and control.

It’s low-hanging political fruit, too, given the widespread consensus that the federal government has mismanaged the immigration file. Public opinion has started to turn against increased immigration. Ottawa bears much blame for that.

The temptation to exploit the existing dissatisfaction on this issue is easy enough to understand, but that can manifest itself in some troubling ways.

There are two sides of this question to consider: the degree to which Alberta wishes to control immigration and the degree to which Alberta wishes to limit immigration.

In her post last week and in an interview with Postmedia’s Rick Bell, Smith went out of her way to float the idea of limiting newcomers’ access to various social supports, based either on immigration status or number of years spent in Alberta.

This may not be hardline enough for the ardent separatists whose manifesto fantasizes about deportations in the tens of thousands in their new utopia. But it’s a pretty clear signal that the Alberta government wishes to discourage any further influx of newcomers to this province.

This would seem to be a more recent and strategic pivot from this premier. It wasn’t that long ago that Smith was musing about the possibility of more than doubling Alberta’s population and drafting a letter to Prime Minister Trudeau criticizing federal immigration limits. The “Alberta is Calling” campaign may have originated under the previous premier, but it continued under the current one.

The Alberta government wanted population growth, but they didn’t seem prepared for the possibility that they might get it. The focus on the immigration issue provides a convenient scapegoat for the government’s mismanagement of that rapid population growth.

Pointing fingers at Ottawa doesn’t preclude the need to address these growth pressures. New figures from Statistics Canada show that while Canada’s population actually shrunk in the third quarter, Alberta’s population continued to grow.

But this is a volatile issue at the best of times. The political pressures that have thrust this issue to the forefront for the Alberta government, and their motivations for elevating this to a top priority — alongside a separation vote, no less — create the potential for a divisive and unhelpful debate.

Rob Breakenridge is a Calgary-based podcaster and writer and host of The Line Alberta. He can be found at robbreakenridge.ca and and reached at rob.breakenridge@gmail.com